Wed 27 Jun 2007
Without saying so, Victor Davis Hanson pens an effective rebuttal to the oddly out-of-touch Dick Lugar in NR. His subheading, “Reasons to examine the Middle East’s negative prognosis,” is followed by this:
The majority opinion is that the occupation in Iraq has been so bungled that the blowback has ruined American efforts at promoting positive change throughout the Middle East.
Perhaps. But for all the justifiable criticism of the Iraqi reconstruction, two truths still remain — the United States is taking an enormous toll on jihadists, and despite the terrible cost in blood and treasure, has not given up on a constitutional government in Iraq.
He says this of Iran:
Theocratic Iran is not exactly as “empowered” as is generally alleged, but in the greatest crisis of its miserable existence. As the mullahs up the ante in the region, they could very soon not only lose Iraq, but also their own dictatorship. Trying to oppose the West in Iraq, Lebanon, and the West Bank is taking an enormous financial toll, as is the general isolation from the world community.
With oil prices at an all-time high, Iran can’t provide gasoline for its own people, who resent the billions spent instead on Arab terrorists abroad. If oil were to dip from near $70 to $50-55 a barrel, the regime would face abject bankruptcy. For all the criticism of the U.S. position, from the left and right, we have now found the right blend of military determination not to let Teheran go nuclear, combined with economic and political efforts at containment. There is an array of future options — stronger embargoes, blockades, and military strikes on infrastructure — still on the table. The social unrest the mullahs desire in Iraq is starting to spill over the border into their own Iran, and its magnitude and final course are still unpredictable.
And finally he advises partience:
Because violence per se is the only narrative from the Middle East, and often editorialized as deriving from U.S. blunders, we are in a state of constant depression. But things are not as bad as they seem, and could still turn out far better than anyone might imagine — if we give the gifted Gen. Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker the support and time they need to make the necessary military and diplomatic changes.
Inside the fog that is the MSM coverage of the Iraq War and the Beltway, Professor Hanson, one of our generations more thoughtful historians is a voice to be to.
June 28th, 2007 at 12:44 pm
Finally, an article that puts attention on the real issue in the war on terrorism: the terrorists are losing! It’s amazing how the mainstream American press, in their zeal to oppose almost any institution or authority, misses or forgets this oft-repeated lesson from history–wars are not won by a quick application of military power, they’re won by the economic strength and political will to sustain the application of military power.
Just as volcanic forces take years to build up before an eruption occurs, or machines break not from constant use but from sustained overuse, so it is with governments and affairs of state. One has to look no further back in history than the demise of the Soviet Union to see how aggressive states can be ultimately broken. They cannot avoid economic ruin from overspending while attempting to further their ideology beyond their own borders. The only alternative would be to admit they are wrong and change their spots. And they will never change their spots.
Vietnam provides the opposite example, when an aggressive government is allowed to recover and continue just at the point of collapse. The oppression, misery, and pure terror which afflicted that part of the world as a result of our political weakness (also formented by a press which distorts, not reports) is a lesson no one should ever forget. And yet we have.
This is why congressional attempts to set timelines for troop withdrawls are so dangerously incorrect. Those nations who would fund global terrorism are nearing their economic breaking point. Defeating terrorism from the Middle East requires a continuation of military, diplomatic, and economic pressue, not a pullout which allows them to recover their economic strength. To pull back now, near the point of forcing state-supported terrorism into economic submission, will only hurt us and other nations far into the future.
The only way we can fail to defeat the scourge of state-sponsored, global terrorism is if we fail to try.
June 29th, 2007 at 9:30 pm
The writer is a former US Air Force Pilot who served in the Balkins. He’s also a good freind who provided immeasurabel help in coaching our Girls Soccer Team at Crestview High School. Brian is know training new helicopter pilots and shares a common view of many warriors, both past and present.