There has been no better source for the most recent and accurate news about the disturbing situation in Pakistan than Bill Roggio’s, The Fourth Rail.

President Musharraf’s been a willing ally of the west in the war against Al Queda, but he has his own problems. His army has demonstrated fecklessness against the well-trained Taliban/AQ forces in the northern provinces in his country. They’ve taken a significant beating over the years and usually deploy defensive postures. And it continues to appear that elements of his own intelligence and military have tipped them off in the past.

They in fact may have done so recently as Taliban/AQ  evacuated their 29 camps in the area, obviously fearful of a US-led strike. Clearly we would have done so, if Musharraf had asked, but his own political situation is tenuous. The recent reappearance of former PM Banazir Bhutto as a possible power sharer with Musharraf has given hope to a significant political positive in Pakistan. He would perfer a power sharing situation with Bhutto, with him holding onto control of the army. Sources have indicated that Bhutto balked at this.

Musharraf said today that he wants Bhutto and another former PM to stay away before parlaimentary elections which are due within the next year. Polls also indicate that Bhutto’s Pakistan’s People’s Party is ahead. Bhutto’s return to power in Pakistan may be ok as according to this ABC/Rueters report she has already signalled that Pakistan needs to work with NATO, the US and Afghanistan to help reign in control of the country’s NW territory.

The political situation is Pakistan is delicate and is certainly being monitored at the highest level by the State Department. Perhaps they are attempting to broker a deal. At any rate, is elections are held in Pakistan its interesting to note that in the last election a few years ago Islamists received only 10% of the vote. One wonders how elections would be monitored in the northern provinces that the Pakistani government has no control. Lets hope Jimmy Carter doesn’t get involved.

Nonetheless, its clear the Islamists fighting in Northern Pakistan are feeling considerable heat as they would never have emptied their camps and transfered operational control to local commanders otherwise. Several of their leaders have been either captured or killed over the last six months. Feckless or not, the Pakistani army’s presence does cause problems for them as they are ceratinly outgunned by Pak artillery and airpower. The fact that US armed forces are just over the border doesn’t help either, as special ops are probably active already against them. Garrisoning in camps just made them too easy a target for anyone.

The largest concern for the region clearly is the Pak’s nuclear weapons. Its one of the reasons why Musharref forcibly routed out the miltant Islamists at the Red Mosque in Islamabad. He could never allow the enemy lodgement that close to the political center of the country. Roggio’s report indicates that the US is believed to have good intelligence as to where Pakistan’s nuclear warhead’s are located.

Its also certain that Musharref has a handle on these as well with those responsible for their security loyal to him. And while there are intelligence and military loyal to the Islamists, there is an equal likelihood that a number of them are loyal to keeping Pakistan a secular society.

Still, as Roggio’s report clearly lays out, Pakistan is a troubling region. Barak Obama’s statement that he would go after AQ in Pakistan without Musharraf’s permission is naive, but he did a service in pointing out that Pakistan and one that bears watching. But it should be watched with the notion that secular politics-whether it be lead by Musharraf or Bhutto-needs to be sustained.