According to the Politico:

Four-term Senator Frank Lautenberg has never faced an easy re-election, and according to a new poll, this year won’t be any different. Republican candidate Dick Zimmer is within striking distance, and the GOP, searching for new targets, could decide to make a play for the Garden State.

The poll, conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute for Gannett, surveyed 698 registered voters between 7/17-21 for a margin of error of +/- 3.7%. Lautenberg and Zimmer, a former member of Congress, were tested. The survey sample was made up of 42% Democratic voters, 25% Republican voters and 33% independents and others.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Lautenberg…..45 / 75 / 14 / 34
Zimmer…………37 / 10 / 71 / 40

Lautenberg has never been the most popular public official in New Jersey. Just 37% of likely voters have a favorable impression of him while 29% say they have an unfavorable impression, and his job approval rating sits at 46%.

Some other points. Probably the reason why the two Poltico reporters saw this as close was the relative undersampling of republicans in the poll. Democrats have had some scandals in the past few years here, too. And Govenor Corzine’s approval numbers are at 37%. New Jersey has elected good republican candidates before to state-wide office, govenors Christine Todd Whitman and Tome Keane. The high cost of gasoline will likely prompt some voters to lean republican.

Here’s Dick Zimmer’s web site.

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