From some incredible reporting from Michael Totten.

H/T: Hot Air

There seems to be some inconsistency in reports about Billy Wagner’s elbow. But if swelling is present, its not good. In an elbow, it means there’s a there, well, there. Something is causing either fluid or blood to appear in the area such as a tear or foreign body. Brace yourselves.

Vlad must be smirking and telling his advisors, “I told you so.”

Yesterday’s failure by NATO to issue little more to the Russian than a good talking to, demonstrates how useless and archac the organization has become. It begs the observation of whether of not it was ever useful or little more than a l good way to make our “friends” feel important. Bogged down in a cesspool of self-interest, its never really acted in response to Russian aggression, but always relied on the United States to do the heavy lifting - if not all of it. And in the event we did, we are said to be acting unilaterally.

European officials said they were not about to get into a military confrontation with Russia over Georgia. That is why European countries have blocked the Bush administration’s efforts to bring Georgia and Ukraine into the alliance, said a senior European diplomat involved in the NATO emergency meeting Tuesday.

While the NATO statement did promise to consider the idea of beginning Georgia’s accession to NATO in December, the diplomat said that in reality, the prospects were virtually nil. “It’s impossible,” he said, speaking on condition of anonymity under normal diplomatic procedure.

The alliance’s charter, he pointed out, stipulates that potential NATO members have to resolve outstanding border issues before joining. That alone would block Georgia’s entry. In addition, he said, European countries are not interested in granting Georgia membership just to spite Russia.

Similarly, it is doubtful that the United States, its military stretched in Iraq and Afghanistan, would go to war with Russia to defend Georgia even if it were a member of NATO, said George Friedman, chief executive of Stratfor, a geopolitical risk analysis company.

”The assumption that everybody made was that a mere guarantee by NATO would preclude any threat because the Russians would never dare displease NATO or the United States,” he said. Except now, he said, Russia has called the West’s bluff.

Tuesday’s emergency session brought the fractures in NATO into sharp relief. Even before the meeting started, the French, Germans and even the British were saying they had no intention of seeking to isolate Russia. “We asked others not to stop relations between NATO and Russia,” Bernard Kouchner, the French foreign minister, said in an interview. “We have to talk to them, but if they don’t implement their promises, we have to react and stand up strongly.”

Before he was Senator Barak Obama and even before he went to law school, the would be presidential candidate actively sought out and became involved with former Weathermen Terrorist Bill Ayers with the Chicago Annenberg Challenge (CAC). In an attempt to estanbloish his bone fides with the local leftist estanblishment, the CAC sought to funnel grant money to thier allies in an attempt take hold of the influence in Chicago Public Schools. These efforts went up against Mayor Richard Daley’s wishes. But it seems all did no go well with CAC and that Barak served on its board.

Some extremely talented bloggers have been following events which came to a head when esteemed journalist Dr. Stanley Kurtz asked the University of Illinois-Urbana for permission to see the documents. He was rebuffed at every turn in a manner that shocks learned observers of such matters.
See Steve Diamond at his excellent blog. He’s been the go to guy on this issue.

Ironic, that a public university would attempt to prevent a legitimate author and journalist - with a Ph.D. in Anthropology from Harvard to boot - from accessing documents legitimately housed in their library. Ironic, and possibly illegal.

The flimsy manufactured excuse - most likely provided to the library by the University’s general counsel - is that the University does not have a “deed of gift” which the university contends is required for it to, legitimately, claim possession of the archived material.

Diamond’s entire post from early this morning is considered by colleagues to be the record

Well, I can use “phenomenon” in my lesson tomorrow. Tropical Storm Fay came ashore over SW Florida and failed to….weaken. A more rounded eye possible refreshed by the waters of Lake Okeechobee. Weather Nerd is the go-to guy with his post 5pm updates.

UPDATE: The 5pm EDT advisory is out. Half a day after landfall, Fay’s maximum sustained winds are now “conservatively” set at 65 mph — that’s 5 mph more than when it came ashore. The discussion states dryly, without hazarding an explanation, that “FAY DID NOT WEAKEN OVER LAND AS ANTICIPATED AND IN FACT…IT IS STRONGER THAN IT HAS EVER BEEN SO FAR.”

The NHC has given up on predicting weakening during Fay’s remaining 12 hours over land. The public advisory states simply, “MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH…100 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.” The latter sentence is a remarkable statement, given that Fay is expected to spend fully half of those 24 hours over land. But at this point, who can argue? Throw out the rules, including the basic iron law that hurricanes only strengthen over water. It’s Fay’s world; we’re just living it.

The NHC discussion also states:

[FAY’S STRENGTHENING OVER FLORIDA] HAS PROMPTED A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. GIVEN THAT FAY HAS KEPT SUCH A WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE ON RADAR AND ON SATELLITE…THE CHANCES THAT THE CYCLONE BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER THE GULF STREAM EAST OF FLORIDA HAVE INCREASED. THE INTENSIFICATION IS SUPPORTED BY SHIPS…THE GFDL AND THE HWRF MODELS…AND IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. …

THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COAST.

Here’s the latest forecast track and watches & warnings map. As always, focus on the “cone.”

UPDATE, 9:42 PM EDT: In the last couple of hours, Fay has finally started to decay a bit, and now looks somewhat less organized on radar. It remains to be seen how she’ll fare once she re-emerges over water in the morning

While countries in the region and Europe are taking steps in clear defiance of Russia, The rogue state continues to occupy Georgia: A withdrawal that was signed and agreed to has not happened on the Russians part. Perhaps it is they never intended it.

GORI, Georgia - Russia said Monday it had begun withdrawing from the conflict zone in Georgia, but it held fast to key positions and sent some of its troops in the opposite direction _ closer to the Georgian capital.

Ann asks simply, “what is Russian afraid of?”

True, Russia is no longer Soviet. But its ruling clique, led by former President and current Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, remains steeped in the paranoid, highly controlled, conspiracy-obsessed culture of the old KGB. He and his entourage are not Communists, but neither do they believe in free markets or free societies. Instead, all important decisions must be made in Moscow by a small, unelected group of people who know how to resist sabotage organized from abroad. Events cannot be allowed to just happen; they must be controlled and manipulated. Elections cannot just take place; they must be determined in advance.

In more simpler terms, the Russians are no more than Italian gangsters or the territorial street thugs of our big city streets. Medvedev calling the Georgians morons today showed a shallowness unworthy of more than what you’d hear in a South LA garage. It just so happens the Russian mafia has big weapons at their disposal. They can be reigned in and defeated if the Europeans won’t back down this time.

And blowing things up and dismantling infrastucture, etc, etc.

They’ve lied about everything else, might as well stay consistent.

Russian politicians and their partners in Tskhinvali, the capital of the breakaway region South Ossetia, said that when Georgian forces tried to seize control of the city and the surrounding area, the physical damage was comparable to Stalingrad and the killings similar to the Holocaust.

But a trip to the city on Sunday, without official minders, revealed a very different picture. While it was clear there had been heavy fighting — missiles knocked holes in walls, and bombs tore away rooftops — almost all of the buildings seen in an afternoon driving around Tskhinvali were still standing.

Russian-backed leaders in South Ossetia have said that 2,100 people died in fighting in Tskhinvali and nearby villages. But a doctor at the city’s main hospital, the only one open during the battles that began late Aug. 7, said the facility recorded just 40 deaths.

The discrepancy between the numbers at Tskhinvali’s main hospital and the rhetoric of Russian and South Ossetian leaders raises serious questions about the veracity of the Kremlin’s version of events. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and other senior officials in Moscow have said the Georgians were guilty of “genocide,” prompting their forces to push Georgia’s military out of South Ossetia and march toward the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, stopping only 25 miles away.

That explanation, that Russians were saving South Ossetians from annihilation, undergirded Moscow’s stated rationale for the invasion

Will the Russians still be drunk and lash out from their entrechmants at unarmed Georgians? Will they continue to set fire to Georgian crops and their forests? Will they put into play their units dressed in Georgian uniforms to commit war crimes? Will they even begin to leave as their own president said they would?

The peace loving world longs for these answers to be know, yet every Russian action and statement over the past month says the anwer is yes, yes, yes.

An amazing consensus has risen from the west that calls into account Russia’s actions. There is some overlap of the opinion coming from President Bush and from the two men who would follow. France and Germany have been forceful. Old Soviet block puppets in Poland, Czech Rep. the Ukraine, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia have shown quick and forceful support of Georgia. Putin was counting on something far, far different, and the enery, force and commitments from Russian naysayers has only just begun.

By early afternoon tomorrow in Georgia, the US will awake to what it is the SovietsRussians are actually up to.