at Weather Nerd

The storm’s long-term track remains somewhat of a mystery. There is now an unusually well-defined split in the computer models, with some calling for the storm to track toward the central or western Florida panhandle, while others expect it to recurve fairly sharply and make landfall somewhere south of Tampa Bay. Remarkably, none of the models on the CSU “spaghetti” plot expect a landfall along the 300-mile-long stretch of coastline in between Apalachicola and Tampa: