Well, I can use “phenomenon” in my lesson tomorrow. Tropical Storm Fay came ashore over SW Florida and failed to….weaken. A more rounded eye possible refreshed by the waters of Lake Okeechobee. Weather Nerd is the go-to guy with his post 5pm updates.

UPDATE: The 5pm EDT advisory is out. Half a day after landfall, Fay’s maximum sustained winds are now “conservatively” set at 65 mph — that’s 5 mph more than when it came ashore. The discussion states dryly, without hazarding an explanation, that “FAY DID NOT WEAKEN OVER LAND AS ANTICIPATED AND IN FACT…IT IS STRONGER THAN IT HAS EVER BEEN SO FAR.”

The NHC has given up on predicting weakening during Fay’s remaining 12 hours over land. The public advisory states simply, “MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH…100 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.” The latter sentence is a remarkable statement, given that Fay is expected to spend fully half of those 24 hours over land. But at this point, who can argue? Throw out the rules, including the basic iron law that hurricanes only strengthen over water. It’s Fay’s world; we’re just living it.

The NHC discussion also states:

[FAY’S STRENGTHENING OVER FLORIDA] HAS PROMPTED A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. GIVEN THAT FAY HAS KEPT SUCH A WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE ON RADAR AND ON SATELLITE…THE CHANCES THAT THE CYCLONE BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER THE GULF STREAM EAST OF FLORIDA HAVE INCREASED. THE INTENSIFICATION IS SUPPORTED BY SHIPS…THE GFDL AND THE HWRF MODELS…AND IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. …

THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COAST.

Here’s the latest forecast track and watches & warnings map. As always, focus on the “cone.”

UPDATE, 9:42 PM EDT: In the last couple of hours, Fay has finally started to decay a bit, and now looks somewhat less organized on radar. It remains to be seen how she’ll fare once she re-emerges over water in the morning