Astonishing news from a variety of sources has come out over the last 24 hours that confirms the McCain-Palin ticket is continuing to surge. And the GOP ticket is surging in states once believed to democrat strongholds.
First in Minnesota. The states 10 electoral votes went to Gore in 2000 by 2.4 points and to Kerry by 3.5 in 2004. But this Star-Tribune poll of likely voters has the race tied at 45% each. In this link I got from AJ Strata, it indicates that in May McCain had been trailing by 13 points.
In Florida, which has gone to President Bush the last two cycles, it had been a state which the Obama campaign felt it could compete. It had spent alot of money on TV spots and had dispatched Hillary Clinton to the state to ease the Plain effect. According to Zogby, four Florida polls came out this week that showed McCain-Palin up anywhere from 5 to 8pts.
Ed Morrissey has this piece in HotAir. Morrissey reports extensively from Zogby polling data which shows that McCain-Palin leads in Pennsylvania by 5pts. The state went to Democrats Gore by 4.2 in 2000 and Kerry by 2.5 in 2004.
Morrissey further reports the Zogby numbers to indicate leads for McCain-Palin in Neveda, New Hampshire and Colorado. The same data shows a McCain-Palin lead in Ohio by 6 pts. Of these three states, New Hampshire went to Kerry in 2004 with the other two going to Bush.
The Pennsylvania numbers must be frightening to the Democrats as the states 21 electoral votes are a must hold for them. Battleground numbers that showed a certain Obama win earlier this year never took into consideration the democrats having to compete in non-battleground states Minnesota and New Hampshire. Its noteworthy that McCain has always been popular in the state.
I have to ask myself some serious questions though and they are as follows:
Just how big and abrupt has been this shift to McCain-Palin?
It seems to have happened quickly and began with the select of Govenor Palin as McCain’s running mate.
Having recognized Palin, what role has she played in these numbers?
Are some of these numbers a result of Obama negatives?
Are undecideds moving earlier than expected? If so, why?
Zogby notoriously over represents dem voters in his polling. What about these? They are astonishing.
Has conventional wisdom (meaning MSM) been accurate about the collective mood of the country about issues as the war, abortion, health care?
If Sarah Palin proves to be the juggernaut in this election she has been thus far, what does it say about feminism and the way our society perecives women.
Most democrat operatives have condemned Palin’s pro-life stance as a danger to women. If McCain-Palin prevails in the fall, what does it do to the abortion political narrative.
Whereas convetional wisdom predicted an Obama landslide, what would a McCain-Palin landslide mean?
Hat tip to Real Clear Politics for providing the numbers from the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections.
Posted under Uncategorized
This post was written by bobsikes on September 14, 2008
