Bay Watch may be officially over, and it’s the worse case scenario for the Mets.

Adam Rubin’s report this morning that the Red Sox are considering getting back to Jason Bay is immeasurable in its potential to embarrass and further weaken Omar Minaya.

With the Wilpons staying in the background this off-season, and in perception they are making Minaya own the club’s future. This is potential political suicide on their part. If not corrected in some manner it will get worse before it gets better. And if Bay is lost, Minaya will have to move quickly to improve his 25 man roster. It’s the only way now.

They’ve set themselves up for this by giving the public face of trying to improve the club. If an unknown Plan B emerges because of an off-season of failure, it will not sit well with the fan base. A rebuilding plan that emerges suddenly in December will lose the Mets even more credibility in a town that doesn’t tolerate a lack of candor well. A decison to rebuild from the beginning would have been an easy sell after the last three seasons.

For an organization that’s always been obsessed with what’s on the back page of it’s city’s tabloids, they’ve never realized that they cannot have it both ways. On one hand, you cannot seek to spin the bad news while not doing enough to create good news on your own. Since the 2007 slide, this has been the Mets operational model.

Neither Minaya nor Jerry Manual have enough personal capital to protect the club from the negatives that will come from a disasterous off-season once spring training starts. There are just too many holes in the roster to overcome a juggernaut of unfavorable attention that will come with inconsistent play.

Much will be learned about the future of the Mets during the next few days.

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