How can it be any other way?

1. Two successive collapses at the end the 2007 and 2008 seasons.

2. The messy handling and dithering of Willie Randolph’s dismissal.

3. The Tony Bernazard saga that important parties are still in public denial over.

4. The flawed player development and amatuer talent acquisition philosophy.

5. 2009.

Nothing has happened over the last few seasons shows that the Wilpon-Minaya blue print for success has been correct since the 2006 season.

Minaya is still the organization’s front man on acquiring major talent, but the unique interpersonal skills we all once marveled are now a mytical notion from swoons past.

I doubt we will see long lines of fans waiting to get Minaya’s autograph this spring. Nonetheless, the man’s been busy. And he’s currently playing a bad hand fairly well.

Minaya seems to have read the market well. He hasn’t panicked to satisfy the vultures who create the back pages and has refused to be baited by agents negotiating via media propoganda. Unless they just don’t want to play for the Mets, Jason Bay and Bengie Molina could be Mets very soon. And at a cost to the Mets that wasn’t artificially ramped up.

The acquisition of Japanese reliever Ryota Igarashi is clever in that he didn’t cost the Mets what a seasoned MLB pitcher would. He could be lightening in a bottle at a very low financial committment.

The Mets focus on foreign talent payed off here. If they have any notion of being relevant in the future they will have to change their financial attitude to US talent. The trade of Billy Wagner at the end of last season was a disasterous misuse of an asset. Maybe the subtle changes that occurred in player development signals a change.

The market is coming back on free agents right now. Few teams are biting at what agents are asking for. I believe that Minaya will be bringing in either Joel Piniero or Jason Marquis who unlike most players makes no bones about wanting to play for the Mets. Some major league bats were let go last Saturday, too. Look for one of those to be a Met.

If something is indeed happening with the Reds, Minaya’s winter might not be one of discontent.

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You need to be able to do that in New York, but as John Harper explains this morning the Mets cannot do that.

Compared to the Red Sox and Phillies, then, what exactly is there to like about them?

Harper offers a path to success:

For that matter, the Mets should take a hard look at how the Phillies have built a powerhouse ballclub. Most important, they did it with a farm system that produced the likes of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Cole Hamels, as well as another wave of top prospects that allowed them to deal for Lee and now Halladay.

Because the Mets have so few top prospects at the upper levels of their farm system, they couldn’t begin to fill the holes created by all their injuries last season, and they are at the mercy of a weak free-agent class this offseason.

Is it 1982 again? Or 1992?

No. Not with three all-stars in the everyday line-up, one of the games’ dominate starters and a big time closer. An average year from the three keeps the Mets relevant and maybe even contenders. But the building will have to be less dramatic. Save the signing Of Jason Bay or Matt Holiday, the Mets will need to bring in some of the guys who got let go on Saturday. They also will need to go get someone like Joel Piniero or Jason Marquis. And yes, the catching will benefit from Bengie Molina, although not at three years.

But there is a problem in Harper’s perscription in that this isn’t the way the Mets current player development philosophy works. By budgeting so little money for US free agents, they limit the number of players they can draft. To few of the kids with leverage that are getting big deals in the current market are not selected.

Note the core group of Phillies that Harper cited are US born player – Hammels, Rollins, Utley and Howard are US born players. Under the Tony Bernazrad regime, latin players were emphasized and favored. This will have to change.

As Harper pointed out, people in the game know how dysfunctional the Mets are right now. Change will have to come.

I think the Mets have done alot this off-season in changing the culture with the hiring of Terry Collins to direct on-field operations in the minors. The hiring of Wally Backman to manage their high profile Brooklyn team is a signal that they are looking to not only be different, but appear different.

Major league talent is on the way this off-season. There will be a new look in the clubhouse. It will be up to Jerry Manuel to get the team to play competitively or he’ll be let go early. Minaya’s contract situation makes his future more uncertain and less predictable. But the heir apparents for Manuel’s job will be in Florida in Mets uniforms starting in February.

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